Which AI compute providers the midterm results help or hurt, judged by where their data centers sit. Our estimates, updated for the results.
Net effect of the results on each provider, from worse to better. Only SpaceX/xAI carries a political-targeting score.
Our judgment, not a forecast. Rings show the score before the vote.
Who runs each state after the vote, with the biggest AI sites in it. Blue flips are the new risk.
Further right means more of a provider’s sites sit where siting rules are likely to tighten. Higher means more exposed to a slowdown.
Our judgment. Dashed rings and lines show where each sat before the vote.
Our odds for three policy outcomes, now against before the vote.
Our estimates, not advice.
Capacity already being built is mostly leased, so a policy slowdown shows up in prices from about 2028.
Change in GPU-hour rent against baseline in each scenario. The odds add to 100%.
Our estimates, not advice. Results as of Nov 4; calls can change.